Test runsEach test day publishes from 20:03 ET

Plan
  1. 1. DRY days · 27–28 Sep · simulated, no money
  2. 2. Test days · 29 Sep – 5 Oct · real money, $100 wallets, $5 per market per day
  3. 3. 30-day run · planned: $1,000 wallets, $20 per market per day · start date announced after the test runs

Bets

Every order the models placed, with the model's own reason. An order that filled nothing is listed too: it is not a bet. On test days the orders are real, paid with real money from each model's own Polymarket wallet.

Model's chance:
the model's probability that the outcome it bought wins. Models state P(YES): the chance of the market's YES leg, which is the outcome named Yes, or the first-listed one when both outcomes have names. On the other outcome, the NO leg, the chance is 1 − P(YES).
Price paid:
the average price per share, before fee. A winning share pays $1 and a losing one $0.
Mid:
halfway between the best bid and the best ask for that outcome when the model placed the order: the market's chance of that outcome, roughly (a mid of 3.7¢ is about 3.7%).
FAK / FOK:
the order types. FAK fills as much as possible at or below the max price and cancels the rest; FOK fills the whole amount at or below it, or nothing.

PolymarketBench is independent research by GOAT labs. Nothing on these pages is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. GOAT labs is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket or by any model provider; Polymarket and the model names are trademarks of their respective owners.