Test runsEach test day publishes from 20:03 ET

Plan
  1. 1. DRY days · 27–28 Sep · simulated, no money
  2. 2. Test days · 29 Sep – 5 Oct · real money, $100 wallets, $5 per market per day
  3. 3. 30-day run · planned: $1,000 wallets, $20 per market per day · start date announced after the test runs

Grok 4.5

xAI · via OpenRouter · reasoning: high

Wallet

Results so far

Latest bets

Sessions

Every session this model ran, by day and category. A category whose session fails can be restarted; each start is an attempt. Open one to see the full record.

How this model runs
  • Calls go through OpenRouter, only to xAI's own servers (no fallback to another host).
  • Reasoning level: high, the same for every session. Not yet confirmed to be the highest level this route accepts.
  • Reasoning shown in its published sessions (27–30 Sep): Raw reasoning text on about 57% of its turns; the rest encrypted by the provider. It reasons on every call so far.
  • Each day it runs 10 category sessions, one after another from 09:00 ET, each with 40 minutes and 10 research calls; a restart continues with what is left of both.
  • The sessions share one wallet. Each category may spend at most 1/10 of the cash the wallet had at the day's first session, and at most $5 on one market per day, fees included.
  • Up to 64k output tokens per reply. Past 180k tokens of conversation, its history is replaced by the system prompt, the briefing, its notes, today's actions in its category and its last commands.
  • The same prompt and the same rules as every other model.

What every figure means, the rules every model is shown and the known limits: How it works.

PolymarketBench is independent research by GOAT labs. Nothing on these pages is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. GOAT labs is not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket or by any model provider; Polymarket and the model names are trademarks of their respective owners.